Mesoscale Discussion 0935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017
Areas affected...north central Idaho and southwest through western
Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011842Z - 012115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
developing through north central Idaho into parts of western
Montana. Some of the storms may become capable of producing isolated
downburst winds and hail this afternoon. Due to the anticipated
sparse coverage of any severe events, a watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing over
the mountains of north central ID into western MT. The combination
of pockets of diabatic warming over the higher terrain and
increasing forcing for ascent through a deep layer downstream from a
progressive shortwave trough will continue to promote
destabilization and thunderstorm development in this region. Latest
objective analysis shows a corridor of 500 J/kg MLCAPE, and the 18Z
special sounding from Great Falls indicates steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates and inverted-V profiles evolving in the sfc-600 mb layer.
Moreover, a belt of moderate winds aloft is overspreading this
region in association with the approaching upper trough. This
environment will promote a threat for isolated downburst winds as
storms intensify this afternoon. Due to limited instability and
expected sparse coverage of the more intense storms, a WW will
probably not be needed.
..Dial.. 06/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...
LAT...LON 45541437 47361277 48351182 48531050 47580990 45971126
44881263 44081397 44481481 45541437
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