SPC MD 975

MD 0975 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092158Z - 100030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat for hail and wind damage will be
possible late this afternoon into this evening across parts of
central Texas. Weather watch issuance is not expected due to the
marginal nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass in
place from the lower Texas coast extending northward across the
Texas Hill Country. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F which is contributing to MLCAPE estimated
by the RAP to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. To the west of this
pocket of moderate instability, a vorticity max is evident on water
vapor imagery over west-central and southwest Texas. This feature
will continue to move eastward and will support a general increase
in convective coverage over the next few hours. In addition, WSR-88d
VWPs across central Texas show gradually veering winds with height
in the low to mid-levels which is resulting in 0-6 km shear in the
25 to 30 kt range according to the RAP. This combined with the
instability and steep lapse rates in the mid-levels will support a
marginal severe threat. Hail will be possible with the stronger
updrafts and a few strong wind gusts may also occur as thunderstorm
downdrafts develop and mature over the next hour or two.

..Broyles/Weiss.. 06/09/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29699825 29349938 29350017 30100060 30740013 30879911
            31369834 31049784 30259765 29699825 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/KFJyg0