Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible late afternoon into this evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin. ...Midwest... A broad swath of non-severe convection is ongoing from MI southwest to KS. While most of this convection appears to be steady-state to decaying, redevelopment persists in the warm-advection regime across north-central KS. In the downstream warm sector, regional 12Z soundings sampled weak 700-500 mb lapse rates of 5-6 degree C/km along with weak tropospheric winds. The net effect of these limiting factors will be to confine the areal extent and amplitude of afternoon destabilization, along with restraining the degree of intensification on the leading edge of broad-scale outflow. Sporadic wet microbursts appear to be the most likely scenario with a low chance for an organized MCS. ...South-central High Plains... Several CAMs are insistent on developing a couple multicell clusters off the higher terrain this evening. With weak low-level northeasterlies beneath modest mid/upper-level westerlies, this scenario may occur. Given relatively warm mid/upper-level temperatures limiting hail growth, the main hazard should be isolated strong to severe wind gusts. ...Great Basin... The persistent mid-level cyclone over northern CA will shift northeast into southeast OR by Thursday morning. Scattered storms will develop again across the Great Basin downstream of this wave, with the pre-storm environment consisting of well-mixed thermodynamic profiles given full insolation already underway. With somewhat larger buoyancy expected compared to previous days amid 25-30 kt effective shear, the setup should yield a risk for localized severe wind gusts. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/26/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
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