SPC MD 1219

MD 1219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2017

Areas affected...for portions of western and central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 030356Z - 030430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts are possible for the next few
hours.  It remains unclear how far south and extensive is the
potential severe risk.  Short-term trends (i.e., Hill City, KS ASOS
observation) may be used to help assess severe potential and the
need for an additional severe thunderstorm watch to the south of
severe thunderstorm watch 390.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates a MCV is located near the KS-NE
border 30 miles east of McCook, NE.  A gust front has surged south
of the active convection from Sheridan County westward to the CO-KS
border near Goodland, KS.  KGLD recently measured a 44 kt gust at
0331Z with the gust front which was displaced from stronger
thunderstorm downdrafts to the northeast.  Surface temperatures have
slowly cooled into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees F with
dewpoints in the upper 50s near Garden City, KS to the middle-upper
60s near Great Bend, KS.  The cooling boundary layer temperatures
have resulted in increasing MLCINH.  Low-level lapse rates and
evaporative cooling potential have lessened over the past 2 hours. 
However, the organized character of the MCS, deep thunderstorm cores
(echo tops 45k-50k feet AGL), and potential water-loading
contribution of the stronger downdrafts may still encourage strong
to localized severe gusts (50-65 mph) for the next few hours.

..Smith/Guyer.. 07/03/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38260132 39520147 39559853 38219848 38019876 37980084
            38260132 

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