Mesoscale Discussion 1265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2017
Areas affected...CT...RI...MA...southern NH...far southern ME
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081509Z - 081745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few organized storms are possible today across southern
parts of New England. Isolated gusts of 40-60 mph are possible.
Despite the potential for localized wind damage, the need for a
severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain/reserved due to both the
relatively confined coverage and expected intensity of the stronger
storms.
DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving
across the Lower Great Lakes this morning and mostly clear skies
from MA into southern NH/ME will promote heating today. Surface
conditions over the region are in the upper 70s degrees F
temperatures and middle-upper 60s dewpoints. Additional heating
will result in marginal buoyancy across the region with 250-750 J/kg
MLCAPE.
A couple of bands of convection as of 1505Z are located over
northern NH and over east-central NY extending into southern VT. A
gradual strengthening in storm intensity is plausible as storms move
into MA/southern NH. The flow in the mid levels has strengthened
across east-central NY (KENX VAD) with 45 kt sampled around 6-km
ARL. While instability will likely remain relatively weak, the
moderately strong flow will promote some storm organization mainly
in the form of organized multicell structures. Isolated gusts of
40-60 mph are possible with a few of the stronger storms and
localized pockets of wind damage expected.
..Smith/Weiss.. 07/08/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 42297361 44217106 43996982 42027099 41467222 41617350
42297361
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