SPC MD 1269

MD 1269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA

Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2017

Areas affected...southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092002Z - 092230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk for isolated downburst winds over
southern AZ through early evening. Coverage of severe events is
expected to remain too sparse for a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Modest easterly deep-layer winds between 2-10 km within
southern periphery of upper ridge will promote westward movement of
storms developing over the higher terrain of southeast AZ.
Temperatures climbing through 100 F and dewpoints in the 50s F are
promoting moderate instability with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and steep
lapse rates with inverted-v boundary layers. Isolated downburst
winds will likely occur through early evening as this activity
develops westward through the corridor of stronger instability.

..Dial/Weiss.. 07/09/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   33131280 33271161 32761034 31891005 31391068 31541163
            32251330 33131280 

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