SPC MD 1338

MD 1338 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MARYLAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH WESTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE

Mesoscale Discussion 1338
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Areas affected...Central Maryland southwestward through western
Virginia...eastern West Virginia...western North Carolina...and far
eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181831Z - 181930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts and isolated hail may occur
near the strongest activity.  A WW is not anticipated for this
activity.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has intensified across the
discussion area over the past 30 minutes to 1 hour.  These storms
have developed mostly along higher terrain/ridgelines, where
insolation/surface warming amidst 60s to low 70s F dewpoints have
fostered moderate to strong destabilization this afternoon. 
Low/mid-level wind fields are very weak - generally leading to
short-lived 'pulse' thunderstorms.  These storms may result in a
threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail into the evening
hours before nocturnal surface cooling leads to a downward trend in
convective intensity.  A WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Cook.. 07/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   39407859 39587815 39727732 39697684 39537648 39237668
            38567756 37977816 37207879 36287993 35818075 35358195
            35218257 35398323 35818328 36178309 36948210 37888061
            38907926 39407859 

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