SPC MD 1468

MD 1468 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES

Mesoscale Discussion 1468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Areas affected...Much of southeast CO into southwest KS and
southward into the Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 102050Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase across the Front Range and near a
stationary front, with cells possibly merging into an MCS. Damaging
wind and hail are likely and a watch is expected in the next 1-1.5
hrs.

DISCUSSION...Air mass recovery continues across southwest KS and
southeast CO with strong heating. An east-west oriented boundary
currently extends from east central CO into west central KS, with
northeasterly upslope flow behind the front and into CO. Cells near
the CO Front Range and toward the Sangre de Cristo mountains should
gradually become more numerous as convective inhibition is reduced
over the lower terrain, with northwesterly winds aloft helping to
push development southeastward. A substantial area of theta-e and
instability is already in place over southeast CO and northeast NM,
and this will support upscale growth.

..Jewell/Goss.. 08/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36050236 36280423 36870502 37660504 38500501 38930416
            39030378 38720249 38330121 37850048 37240031 36610039
            36070084 36050236 

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