SPC MD 1469

MD 1469 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443... FOR CENTRAL OK

Mesoscale Discussion 1469
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Areas affected...Central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443...

Valid 102133Z - 102230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue ahead of the storm cluster
currently moving through Blaine and Kingfisher counties. Primary
severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although hail remains possible
as well.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an increase in southeasterly
storm motion (now estimated to be 32-35 kt) as ongoing cluster over
Blaine and Kingfisher counties becomes more linear and forward
propagating. Downstream airmass is characterized by weak southeast
winds through about 1 km with winds then becoming quickly
northwestward. Recent TLX VAD suggests 0-6 km bulk shear is over 40
kt. Additionally, favorable thermodynamics supported by temperatures
in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s exist downstream.
Current mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is over 2000 J/kg immediately
ahead of the storm cluster. This favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment suggest the ongoing storm cluster should be
able to maintain its organization for at least a few hours.
Transition to a more linear mode should result in strong wind gusts
as the primary severe threat, although some large hail is also
possible, particularly with any more isolated/discrete activity
ahead of the cluster.

..Mosier.. 08/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34839870 35629928 36469901 36759847 36849768 36769707
            36409646 35939625 35479632 35039653 34759676 34539710
            34489803 34839870 

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