Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017
Areas affected...southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...northeast
New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446...
Valid 110107Z - 110300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe storms with damaging wind and large hail will
remain likely over the central and southern High Plains this
evening. It appears probable that cluster of storms over southeast
CO will evolve into a forward propagating MCS during the next couple
hours and continue through southwest KS and the OK Panhandle, posing
a damaging wind risk.
DISCUSSION...Severe storms continue over the central and southern
High Plains, with the highest concentration of storms as of 01Z over
southeast CO generally along and just north of southward-advancing
cold front. Farther south, a large convective outflow boundary
extends from near the TX/OK border into the TX panhandle. Objective
analysis and 00Z raob data show the atmosphere is moderately
unstable between these two boundaries with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
modest (6.5-7.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Storms currently remain
mostly discrete with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear supporting
supercell structures. However, numerous storm mergers are imminent
over southeast CO with storms moving off the higher terrain and
those developing along the cold front. The mergers will likely
contribute to upscale evolution into an MCS and an increasing
damaging wind threat. The MCS should subsequently move southeast
supported by moist southeasterly low-level flow and some increase in
the low-level jet this evening.
..Dial.. 08/11/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36700405 38610366 39120209 38300132 36520091 35830122
35530247 35660334 36700405
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/15cnSTf
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