SPC MD 1478

MD 1478 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX BIG COUNTRY

Mesoscale Discussion 1478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Areas affected...TX Big Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121811Z - 121945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible for the next few
hours across the TX Big Country.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals an outflow boundary
extending from 0F2 (in Montague county) southwestward to DYS (in
Taylor county) and then back westward to the line of storms moving
through Nolan and Fisher counties. The line of storms showed some
brief intensification as it interacted with outflow boundary and SWW
reported a gust of 48 kt. ZDR trends in the radar data suggest the
strongest updraft in the line is moving into Jones county and
continued propagation northeastward away from the outflow boundary
anticipated. 

However, southern portion of the line is expected to continue more
eastward and with the trend of occasional updraft intensification
likely persisting as the line of storms interacts with the cells
developing along the outflow boundary. Generally warm and moist
airmass across the region suggests the primary severe threat will be
isolated strong wind gusts. Isolated nature of the severe threat is
expected to preclude watch issuance but trends will be monitored
closely.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32050049 32600037 33129960 33199850 32419840 31969918
            31869983 32050049 

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