Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017
Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle/Northwest Texas and
adjacent southwestern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...
Valid 140153Z - 140330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe wind/hail will remain possible with storms
overspreading the southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the
adjacent Texas South Plains, northwest Texas and perhaps far
southwestern Oklahoma through 10 PM to midnight CDT. It is not
clear that another watch will be needed, but trends are being
monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Intense convective development, including embedded
supercells, has evolved into a better organized convective system
with severe wind gusts across and southeast of Amarillo area. 20-30
kt system relative near surface inflow of seasonably high moisture
content air (surface dew points near 70f), characterized by CAPE up
to 3000 J/kg, appears likely to maintain intense convective
development at least another several hours. Strongest activity
appears likely to continue propagating slowly southeastward along a
low-level baroclinic zone into the Childress/Plainview areas through
03-05Z, in the presence of modest but strongly sheared westerly deep
layer mean flow. Until boundary layer cooling and increasing
inhibition begin suppressing storm intensities late this evening or
overnight, strong surface gusts will remain a threat along with a
risk for severe hail.
..Kerr.. 08/14/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34710254 34840167 34930060 34809987 34479972 33790020
33730135 34710254
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