SPC MD 1596

MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Areas affected...coastal Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291120Z - 291315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for weak supercells capable of weak
tornadoes will be maximized near a stationary maritime front located
near the Louisiana coast.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a convective plume from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico northward into southeastern Louisiana
while other showers and thunderstorms are near the southwest
Louisiana coast and the lower Sabine Valley.  Surface analysis
places a stationary maritime front over the near-shore waters south
of the mouth of the Sabine River east along the central Gulf Coast. 
Backed easterly flow in the vicinity of the front is resulting in
enlarged hodographs.  The transition from a moderately buoyant
airmass over the northern Gulf to marginal buoyancy near I-10 has
led to and will likely continue to encourage weakening of updrafts
as they move north into southern Louisiana.  However, a relatively
favorable zone of stronger low-level shear and marginal buoyancy may
promote the development of additional weak supercells this morning
near the coast.  The primary hazard with the more persistent
low-level mesocyclones will be the possible risk for short-lived and
probably weak tornadoes.

..Smith/Edwards.. 08/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   28959097 29299290 29789321 29939133 30078950 29358937
            29019024 28959097 

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