Mesoscale Discussion 1618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2017
Areas affected...central Indiana...northern Ohio...southeast Lower
Michigan...northwest Pennsylvania...western New York
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...
Valid 042250Z - 050045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to intensify over southeast Lower
Michigan and northern Indiana. This activity should continue
through the early evening hours, moving into parts of western NY,
northwest PA, and northeast OH. This area will be monitored for a
new watch.
DISCUSSION...A line of strong to occasionally severe storms has
developed in the past 2 hours across parts of northern IN into
southeast Lower MI, with individual cells moving eastward at 35-40
knots. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates, moderate CAPE, and
rather strong low-level winds will pose a risk of locally
strong/damaging wind gusts as the storms continue to organize.
Forecast soundings also suggest parameters favorable for hail in the
stronger cells. Given recent convective trends and CAM solutions,
it appears likely that some of these storms will begin to affect
areas east of WW 478 around 00z. A new watch may be needed in this
area, as the air mass moistens/destabilizes and low-level winds
continue to strengthen.
..Hart.. 09/04/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 40538744 42778283 41808175 43417843 41867835 40688272
40058490 39498632 39578747 40538744
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