Mesoscale Discussion 1626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017
Areas affected...northeast South Carolina through eastern North
Carolina and southeast Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061729Z - 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to undergo a slow but steady increase
in coverage and intensity from the central and eastern Carolinas
into southeast VA this afternoon. A few strong to damaging wind
gusts will become possible, but WW issuance is uncertain due to
potential limiting factors for a more robust threat.
DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a cold front extends from the
middle Atlantic coastal area southwest through the central
Carolinas. Pre-frontal warm sector is moist with upper 60s to 70F
dewpoints, and diabatic warming will support temperatures from near
80 to 85 F this afternoon, promoting modest instability with
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms are in the process of developing along
and ahead of the front as the weakly capped boundary layer
destabilizes. Weak mid-level lapse rates and weak to modest flow in
the surface to 3 km layer parallel to developing convective bands
are potential limiting factors for a more robust severe threat.
Nevertheless, the presence of 35-45 kt effective bulk shear might
contribute to a few storms developing mid-level updraft rotation and
bowing segments capable of few instances of strong to damaging wind
gusts.
..Dial/Thompson.. 09/06/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...
LAT...LON 34797992 35947846 37207619 36147606 35137732 33368049
33698094 34797992
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