Mesoscale Discussion 1651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017
Areas affected...central through northeast Kansas into extreme
northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 170032Z - 170230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will pose a modest threat for isolated strong to
damaging wind gusts and hail through 02 or 03Z. A WW will probably
not be needed due to the expected limited duration of the threat.
DISCUSSION...Early this evening isolated storms are in the process
of developing along a southeast-advancing cold front that extends
from extreme northwest MO into south-central KS. Topeka 00Z RAOB
sampled the pre-frontal warm sector with moderate (2000 J/kg)
MLCAPE, modest (6.5-7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and 30 kt surface
to 6 km shear. This environment will support primarily multicell
storms capable of a few downburst winds and some hail next couple
hours. However, increasing convective inhibition associated with a
stabilizing boundary layer suggests these storms will probably begin
a weakening trend by 02Z.
..Dial/Thompson.. 09/17/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38219813 39449673 40459568 40319506 39579539 38779606
37979741 38219813
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