Mesoscale Discussion 1676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017
Areas affected...portions of New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301946Z - 302145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing across western New Mexico.
These thunderstorms should develop east and continue through the
afternoon. Hail will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. A
watch is currently not expected.
DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with a trough moving across the
Intermountain West has resulted in the development of thunderstorms
across portions of northern New Mexico. Here, clear skies earlier
today allowed for enough insolation to result in mixed-layer CAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/kg. Additionally, the stronger mid-level
flow along the southern periphery of the mid-level trough will
result in deep-layer shear around 30-35 knots, especially across
northern New Mexico. Generally cool thermodynamic profiles coupled
with the degree of instability and deep-layer shear will support a
brief/local hail threat with the strongest thunderstorm cores. The
overall marginal nature of the threat should preclude the need for a
watch.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 09/30/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34650904 36120899 36900707 36970511 36450429 35180473
34410651 34420885 34650904
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