SPC MD 1677

MD 1677 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 1677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Southwestern
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302236Z - 010100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is likely to continue developing
across the central High Plains this evening. A few strong wind gusts
and hail will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance is not
expected across the region but the situation will continue to be
monitored for convective trends.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a lee trough over
east-central Colorado. Winds to the east of the surface trough are
southerly with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture located in
western Kansas. Low-level convergence is enhanced in southeastern
Colorado where a broken line segment of strong thunderstorms is
ongoing. This activity will continue to have a marginal severe
threat over the next couple of hours, moving eastward into
increasing instability (MLCAPE Near 1500 J/Kg) across far eastern
Colorado and far western Kansas. Hail and a few marginally severe
wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

Further to the north, thunderstorms are developing in the Denver
area in response to strong large-scale ascent associated with an
upper-level trough moving into the central Rockies. Although
instability is not that strong in north-central Colorado, the Denver
WSR-88D VWP has 45 kt of 0-6 km shear with gradually veering winds
with height. As this convection moves eastward into the plains of
northeastern Colorado, it will encounter better low-level moisture
and increasing instability. For this reason, a marginal severe
threat is expected to develop within a couple hours. Hail and strong
gusty winds will be possible as the cells gradually intensify.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 09/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38270397 37120340 37120207 37900145 39300095 40640053
            41370093 41540234 40710395 39750426 38270397 

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