SPC Sep 17, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and wind remain possible
this evening mainly from east-central Kansas into central Iowa. An
isolated severe threat may also linger for a few hours over parts of
northwestern Texas, and across northwest Wisconsin.

...East-central KS into central IA and northward into western WI...
Storms are finally regenerating along the cold front across KS in
the wake of the earlier activity which is now weakening over western
MO. 00Z soundings indicate relatively steep lapse rates aloft with a
good amount of instability supportive of large hail. Given the
orientation of the cold front, storms may get undercut by stable air
quickly, reducing cell longevity. A few storms may remain strong to
severe for a few hours this evening before CIN increases and 850 mb
winds veer and also become parallel to the front, reducing lift. 
For more information see mesoscale discussion 1651.

Farther north into WI, instability is a bit less, but sufficient for
scattered storms given lift along the front and a broad low-level
jet maintaining some theta-e advection this evening. Observed
soundings support marginal hail or wind.

...Northwest TX into western OK...
Strong heating and a pre-frontal trough supported the development of
a cluster of storms earlier today with sporadic damaging wind gusts.
The loss of heating and veering winds a loft should allow a general
down trend to continue with the ongoing activity over northwest TX,
although 00Z soundings show sufficient instability to support some
continuation into southwest OK. While a strong wind gust is
possible, any threat should be localized and short-lived.

...Southwest into central MO...
A complex of storms coincident with a large-scale moist axis
continues to surge northeastward across MO, with a history of
damaging winds. With the loss of heating, and the presence of
increasing CIN to downstream, these storms should continue to
weaken.

..Jewell.. 09/17/2017

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