Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible today across Kansas and Missouri, and over parts of West Texas. However, the overall severe risk appears low. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will dig into the northwestern states, with brief shortwave ridging over the northern Plains. To the south, a shortwave trough associated with an area of rain and storms will progress eastward across the central Plains and Midwest. The surface pattern will remain weak/non-descript over much of CONUS until Monday night as a low pressure trough deepens over the northern High Plains. However, storms are not expected in those areas until Tuesday. ...Kansas into Missouri... Scattered rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday morning in association with a weak shortwave trough which will continue eastward during the day. Activity may extend from eastern NE into OK Monday morning, moving into IA and MO by afternoon. As a result clouds and ongoing rain, heating will be limited. Winds aloft may be enhanced a bit by the upper wave, but storm mode is expected to be rather disorganized. Rain and gusty winds should be the main products of these storms. Behind the early activity, some models show isolated storms redeveloping over KS, perhaps extending southwestward into the OK and TX Panhandles. Given little if any low-level convergence, and midlevel downward motion, this may be too aggressive of a solution especially with capping concerns. ...West Texas... Strong heating will occur, which will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer by late afternoon. Weak southerly surface winds will maintain 50s dewpoints, with sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms forming near the NM border. The weak wind profiles will favor disorganized multicells, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before activity ceases during the evening. ..Jewell/Dean.. 09/18/2017Read more
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