Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Primary feature of interest during the extended period is Hurricane Irma, which could begin impacting portions of FL as early as D4/Friday. Guidance is in very good agreement through D4/Friday, but given the typical uncertainties regarding the track and strength of tropical systems and the mesoscale sensitivities tropical cyclone tornado environments, it is too early to indicate any tornado threat. Refer to National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast details on Hurricane Irma. Surface lee troughing will persist across the High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday and the resultant upslope flow will contribute to potential thunderstorms. However, meager low-level moisture and weak instability are currently anticipated, keeping severe probabilities low. For the remainder of the period (D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday), severe potential across the majority of the CONUS is low with Hurricane Irma likely the only feature that could result in severe thunderstorms.Read more
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