Mesoscale Discussion 1682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2017
Areas affected...Kansas...Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...
Valid 020354Z - 020600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue for a couple more hours from
eastern Nebraska possibly extending southwestward to near the Kansas
border. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.
Tornado watch 490 will be allowed to expire.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a nearly continuous line
of strong thunderstorms extending from near Norfolk, Nebraska
south-southwestward to north of Hastings and into northwest Kansas.
The line is located along a cold front with an axis of instability
just ahead of the front. RAP analysis suggests that moderate
instability is located across the western third of Kansas with
weaker instability across east-central Nebraska. In addition, the
Hastings WSR-88D VWP shows strong deep-layer shear suggesting that
the severe threat should persist for a few more hours. Although
isolated supercell structures with isolated large hail will still be
possible, a transition to linear has already occurred. This will
favor wind damage as the primary threat. As the line of storms moves
eastward into decreasing instability and as a capping inversion
increases, the severe threat should become more isolated and
marginal.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 10/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40199896 39330053 38940057 38809937 39119841 40109703
41609675 41889709 41869772 41229806 40429870 40199896
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