SPC MD 1688

MD 1688 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM

Mesoscale Discussion 1688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2017

Areas affected...east-central NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032312Z - 040015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
posing a threat for hail and strong localized winds. However, watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Satellite observations show developing cumulus along a
northeast-oriented surface boundary and triple point located in
Guadalupe County, NM. Here, strong moisture convergence is
occurring, with surface dew points in the mid 60s south of the
boundary. Should storms form in this area, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
and effective bulk shear of 45-50 kt should support supercell
thunderstorms capable of producing hail and localized strong winds.

Farther west, diurnal heating and upslope flow along the Sacramento
Mountains is helping to initiate thunderstorms. Here, MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 45-50 kt should be
conducive for supercells, especially if storms can move off the high
terrain into the richer axis of moisture displaced about a county to
the east. However, storms in the region are expected to remain
isolated, precluding the need for a watch at this time.

..Karstens/Thompson.. 10/03/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32980544 33350577 34030589 34880578 35270541 35400505
            35380441 35260367 34770345 34020350 33470378 33060473
            32980544 

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