SPC Oct 2, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2017

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe storms may continue across parts of the south
central through northeastern Nebraska into the 9-10 PM CDT time
frame, before stronger storms begin to spread across and northeast
of the mid Missouri Valley with diminishing severe weather potential
later this evening.

...01Z Outlook Update...
An area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent is in the process
of spreading northeastward across central Nebraska, and is forecast
to continue a fairly rapid progression across and northeast of the
middle Missouri Valley late this evening into the overnight hours. 
As it does, and a narrow corridor of residual boundary layer
instability begins to wane with the onset of radiational surface
cooling and southeastward progression of the surface front,  the
risk for severe storms may begin to diminish more rapidly by the
02-03Z time frame.  Inflow of drier low-level air is expected to be
detrimental to continuing vigorous convective development and severe
weather potential across and northeast of the middle Missouri Valley
late this evening, but downward transfer of momentum associated a
40+ kt pre-frontal southerly 850 mb jet could still contribute to
some lingering risk for strong surface gusts through the 05-07Z time
frame.

..Kerr.. 10/02/2017

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z