SPC MD 1775

MD 1775 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA

Mesoscale Discussion 1775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Areas affected...Central coastal and inland areas of the western FL
Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231340Z - 231615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms in the far eastern Gulf of
Mexico could pose a risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong
wind gust, as they reach the central coast of western Florida around
15Z and advance inland.

DISCUSSION...At 1320Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a broken band of
storms located west of the FL coast, extending from 40 W PIE to 45
SW SRQ, with a couple embedded, persistent low-level rotational
couplets. This band of storms appears to be supported by the leading
extent of DPVA attendant to the central Gulf of Mexico trough and
within a low-level zone of convergence.  Despite a cirrus shield,
attendant to the offshore band of storms, spreading downstream
across west-central FL (the discussion area) limiting surface
heating, an ongoing gradual increase in surface dew points should
aid in some destabilization.  Although recent VWP at TBW indicated
veering low-level winds, hodograph curvature remains sufficient
(0-1-km SRH near 200 m2/s2) to support a marginal risk for a tornado
and/or locally strong wind gust as the storms reach the central
portion of the western FL coast around 15Z.

Uncertainty remains with how far inland these threats will be
possible, as the aforementioned clouds and limited destabilization
could preclude any organized storms from reaching too far inland.

..Peters/Edwards.. 11/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   28308264 28438227 28338210 27658188 27348189 27138203
            26978250 27498285 28108301 28308264 

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