SPC MD 140

MD 0140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS

Mesoscale Discussion 0140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast
OK...South-Central/Southeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190714Z - 190915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail possible for the next several hours across
portions of north-central/northeast OK and south-central/southeast
KS.

DISCUSSION...Strong forcing for ascent and continued warm-air
advection across the frontal zone have contributed to a persistence
of the elevated convection ongoing across north-central OK and
south-central/southeast KS during the past several hours. In fact,
regional radar imagery has shown an increase in coverage over the
past hour, likely a result of continued forcing for ascent as the
system shifts eastward into better moisture. 

Steep mid-level lapse rates still exist across much of the region
and recent mesoanalysis estimated MUCAPE is around 1000 J/kg. Strong
vertical shear is also in place, with VAD wind profiles from INX
sampling over 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and mesoanalysis estimating
effective bulk shear around 40 to 50 kt. This type of environment
supports hail, particularly in new, more cellular development.
General expectation is for these storms to persist, gradually
shifting eastward over the next few hours, with occasional instances
of hail possible.

..Mosier.. 03/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36389808 36979894 37759787 37929528 36959458 36629547
            36389808 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0140.html