SPC MD 678

MD 0678 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NE

Mesoscale Discussion 0678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

Areas affected...South central and southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 090616Z - 090745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging winds may persist through
08-09z, but the need for an additional severe thunderstorm watch is
unclear.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and Broken Bow and Ord NE
confirm 51-55 kt outflow gusts with the southern portion of the MCS
moving southeastward across southeast SD and central/northeast NE. 
Low-level inflow into the convective system will be strongest for
the next few hours across south central/southeast NE in association
with a 30 kt southerly low-level jet (which will veer gradually to
southwesterly later this morning), which coincides with the corridor
or richest low-level moisture, largest buoyancy, and relatively
weaker convective inhibition.  The cap will eventually take a toll
on the convective system, though the 40-50 kt rear inflow signature
noted in the North Platte VWP suggests that lift along the gust
front will remain sufficient for additional storm development just
over the cold pool for a few more hours.  This situation appears to
be on the margins for an additional severe thunderstorm watch from
south central into east central and southeast NE, though the
convection will continue to be monitored closely for any signs of
intensification beyond that which has already been observed.

..Thompson.. 06/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40029752 40039895 40319988 41009984 41189938 41549826
            42059745 42279712 42079641 41499616 40859615 40459639
            40029752 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0678.html