Mesoscale Discussion 0719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Western Oklahoma...Southwest
Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130540Z - 130815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of the
temporal extension of severe thunderstorm 174. Isolated large hail
and wind damage will be the primary threats. The severe potential is
expected to gradually decrease and a new weather watch will probably
not be needed beyond the 07Z expiration.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms ongoing from the Texas Panhandle extending northward
into southwest Kansas and eastward into western Oklahoma. These
storms are located in a moist airmass with moderate instability in
place. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values from around 1500 J/kg
across much of the Texas Panhandle to near 3000 J/kg in parts of
southwest Kansas. In addition, a 30 to 40 kt low-level jet is
located across the southern High Plains. The MCS is located in the
exit region of the low-level jet where lift is maximized. This
combined with the instability will help maintain the storms within
the MCS for several more hours and a severe threat is expected to
continue. Although the supercell potential has diminished, isolated
large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with the
stronger multicells.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/13/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 33549944 33360097 33720200 34890221 37070234 37550137
37620072 37689978 37589867 36949831 34729878 33549944
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0719.html
No comments:
Post a Comment