Mesoscale Discussion 1004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018 Areas affected...North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...261... Valid 040549Z - 040745Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259, 261 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple areas of thunderstorms continue across North Dakota. Given favorable environment, these thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for wind and hail for at least a few more hours. DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are ongoing across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261. Area 1 is located across across south-central North Dakota where a strong, linear mesoscale convective system (MCS) is moving east-northeast. This complex will continue to be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. Additionally, strong warm-air advection along and ahead of this MCS will support isolated northward thunderstorms ahead of the MCS. A couple of such storms are currently moving northward out of South Dakota. Isolated hail will be the main threat with these storms. The airmass ahead of these thunderstorms remains very sufficiently sheared and unstable, with most-unstable CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg and deep-layer shear between 30 and 40 knots. The threat for severe hail and damaging thunderstorm winds should persist for at least a few more hours this morning. Given the speed of the aforementioned MCS, and favorable environment ahead of it, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch may become necessary for portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Area 2 is located to the northwest of area 1, across western North Dakota. These thunderstorms appear to be forced on the leading edge of the stronger ascent associated with a short-wave trough and attendant jet stream moving across the region. Although these thunderstorms appear to be somewhat weaker than their counterparts to the southeast, strong tropospheric flow will yield at least some threat for damaging thunderstorm winds. ..Marsh.. 07/04/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48720294 48609526 46079643 46230307 48720294Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1004.html
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