SPC MD 1063

MD 1063 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NE...FAR NORTHWEST KS

Mesoscale Discussion 1063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Areas affected...Far Northeast CO...Southwest NE...Far Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 170536Z - 170730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for severe wind gusts will likely persist for at
least the next hour or two, perhaps longer. Convective trends are
being monitored closely for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convective line moving southeastward through the NE
Panhandle during the past few hours has shown an increase in forward
progression during the past hour or so. This increase in forward
speed is largely a result of the progression of a stronger cold pool
from intense storm over the central NE Panhandle interacting with
relatively weaker cold pool ahead of it. Continued progression of
the cold pool as well as better moisture with eastern extent will
likely result in a more southeasterly motion of the entire
convective line, taking it into northwest KS by around 07Z. Current
trends suggest the threat for severe wind gusts will likely continue
for at least the next hour or two, with some potential for it to
last further into the night. Convective trends are being monitored
closely for potential watch issuance.

..Mosier/Grams.. 07/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40590350 41040356 41320310 41350225 41450156 41740110
            42060037 41849966 39699959 39400142 39750268 40590350 

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