SPC MD 1410

MD 1410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN SD...SOUTHERN ND

Mesoscale Discussion 1410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Areas affected...Northern SD...Southern ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020551Z - 020815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail will be possible overnight. Watch
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually been increasing in coverage
and intensity across northern SD and southern ND tonight, within a
low-level warm advection regime. Continued moistening below 700 mb
combined with steep lapse rates aloft is resulting in
moderate-to-strong elevated buoyancy, with MUCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg
per recent mesoanalyses. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and relatively
strong anvil-level flow will support the potential for hail
production with the strongest cells, though the anticipated dominant
cluster mode will mitigate the hail threat to some extent. While
damaging wind cannot entirely be ruled out with any upscale-growing
line segments, substantial SBCINH will work against any strong gusts
reaching the surface. Overall, the coverage of the threat is
expected to remain too isolated for watch issuance.

..Dean/Edwards.. 09/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   44690181 45740119 46299951 46549757 46279696 45529696
            44929746 44749835 44589995 44620143 44690181 

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