Cold and Snow Update

The cold is still on track to reach us.  Here are the latest model forecasts.

At 4 PM cold air (purple and dark blue colors) are just north of the border (the solid lines are sea level pressure)

By 10 AM Sunday, the cold air has started to push into Washington State, with the really cold stuff moving into Montana.  Importantly, a low center is right along the coast.

The low center, which will have some precipitation associated with it, moves southward during the next day, and is positioned off of central Oregon by 10 AM Monday.  Extensive cold air is over WA State.

And by 10 AM Tuesday, the entire NW is in the deep freeze.

The cold air, and associated strong winds, will pour through the Fraser River Valley gap, northeast of Bellingham.  At 10 AM, a jet of northeasterly winds will push across NW WA from Bellingham to Blaine and surge into the San Juan Islands (see gust forecast below).

By 7 AM Monday, the winds will be ferocious,  with northeasterly gusts of 45-55 knots.

Snow?   Over the next 24 hr (ending 4 PM Saturday), the north Cascades will pick up 6 inches to a foot.  Good for Stevens Pass and Mt. Baker.

During the subsequent 24h (through 4 PM Sunday), not much over the interior, but light snow will be observed along the coast as the low center moves southward.

And now the scary stuff.  The latest forecast run puts down a few inches during the 24 hr ending 4 PM Monday from Puget Sound down to Portland (see below)--with most of the action early on Monday.  

There is a great deal of uncertainty with this forecast...it critically depends on the strength and position of that coastal low.  The ensemble forecasts are all over the place, with some predicting no snow over Seattle.    So wait a bit before running to the food store for milk, eggs, and bread.

from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/cold-and-snow-update.html