Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Areas affected...Northern/northeastern Texas into northern/central
Louisiana and far southern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130652Z - 130845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Occasional, marginally severe hail is possible with storms
across the discussion area for the next several hours. A WW is not
anticipated due to the isolated nature of the threat.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection - including isolated supercells -
continue within a warm-advection regime across the discussion area.
These storms are in an environment characterized by steep mid-level
lapse rates (7.5-8.5 deg C/km) as observed in RAP point forecast
soundings and 06Z upper air soundings from FWD and SHV, and strong
vertical shear in the cloud-bearing layer. This regime should
persist for the next several hours as warm-advection continues well
ahead of an approaching mid-level wave and surface low located over
New Mexico and Texas respectively. 1" to 1.5" hailstones are
possible with stronger storms - especially those that exhibit
mid-level rotation. Given the isolated and marginal nature of the
threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated, although convective trends
will continue to be monitored.
..Cook.. 04/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31749643 32239671 32819669 33229617 33309543 33249429
33189342 33049233 32889143 32429118 31709143 31309187
31269203 31019268 30849343 30909481 31149580 31749643
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0313.html
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