Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019
Areas affected...southern Alabama...southeastern Mississippi...and
portions of the Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...
Valid 140715Z - 140815Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.
SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across WW 56, and should
reach eastern portions of the WW around 08Z-09Z. In that timeframe,
conditions will be reevaluated for another potential WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...An ongoing, broken band of strong to severe convection
persists along a surface trough from near Hale County, AL
south-southwestward to near PQL on the MS Gulf Coast. The severe
threat with this activity will primarily be damaging wind gusts,
although bows/LEWPs and more discrete activity will be capable of
tornadoes given continued strong low- and deep-shear.
06Z area upper air soundings from LIX, FFC, TLH, and BMX indicate
subtle mid-level inversions - most pronounced in the 500-700 hPa
layer in TLH's soundings. With synoptic-scale forcing for ascent
displaced well to the west (and tied to the closed upper low over
eastern Oklahoma), it appears that any remaining convection will
most likely remain tied to convergence along the surface trough and
broad low-level confluence within the weakly to moderately unstable
warm sector. These processes will likely continue as the band
continues to shift east and will probably exist east of WW 56, with
damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two remaining possible. Before
convection reaches the eastern extent of WW 56, a downstream WW will
need to be considered and coordinated with affected WFOs.
..Cook.. 04/14/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 32158827 32388796 32298700 32158623 31798587 31358585
30748608 30298665 30158767 29998839 29798888 29818923
30318910 30888876 31508859 32158827
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0334.html
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