SPC Jun 15, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK...

...SUMMARY...
A cluster of thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail
will move eastward across western and central Kansas and perhaps
northern Oklahoma this evening.

...KS/Northern OK this evening...
Thunderstorms have consolidated across western KS and far eastern CO
this evening, with a few severe wind gusts noted. While a
substantial increase in the low-level jet is expected this evening,
this should mainly be focused well to the east of the ongoing
cluster across western KS. Despite this, strong instability and
sufficient effective shear should help to maintain an organized
severe wind threat this evening across western/central KS into
portions of northern OK before increasing CINH weakens the system
late tonight. 

...West TX...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may persist into mid evening
across portions of west TX. While effective shear is rather modest,
steep low/midlevel lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support a
threat of downburst winds and perhaps some hail. Any remaining
severe threat should diminish later tonight due to increasing
boundary-layer stability.

...Western/central WI...
A few weakly rotating storms have been noted this evening across
central/western WI in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. A
general decreasing trend is expected into tonight with this
convection, but some lingering threat of locally damaging wind will
persist into mid evening. 

...North-central KS...south-central/southeast NE...
Thunderstorm initiation remains possible this evening along a weak
surface boundary from north-central KS into south-central NE. If
storms do develop, moderate-to-strong buoyancy and effective shear
of 25-35 kt would support organized structures, including the
potential for organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell
or two. Severe hail and wind would be threat with any sustained deep
convection this evening across the area. 

...MT/ND...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms will likely continue through
the evening across much of central/eastern MT into ND, within a
weakly forced northwesterly flow regime. While severe hail or wind
cannot be entirely ruled out, a continued downward trend is expected
with time, so probabilities have been dropped from this area.  

...Eastern KS into Missouri late tonight...
As the low-level jet increases late tonight, elevated convection is
expected to develop across eastern KS into much of MO. Steep
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg. Effective shear should remain rather weak, but the strongest
cells will be capable of at least marginally severe hail. Clustering
of elevated convection may also result in some upscale growth, with
the potential for a few strong wind gusts. The remnant MCS from the
convection ongoing across western KS this evening will also move
into the area very late tonight, with some lingering threat for
strong wind gusts.

..Dean.. 06/15/2019

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html