Tuesday, June 18, 2019

SPC Jun 19, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail and wind will continue this evening and tonight from
mainly from west Texas into  Oklahoma. Other strong storms over the
Mid Atlantic and across Montana should continue to weaken this
evening.

...West TX, OK, KS...
An east-west oriented outflow boundary is currently moving south
along the KS/OK border as an MCS continues over southeast KS and far
northeast OK. Damaging winds and large hail remain possible with
this system. South of the outflow, heating for most of the day has
led to strong instability, with highest theta-e over northwest TX
where dewpoints have come up into the upper 60s F. GPS PWAT values
have steadily risen during the day, nearing 1.40" at CDS.

Clusters of severe storms over the south Plains and Panhandles will
eventually merge cold pools with an MCS expected over northwest TX
into central OK. While boundary-layer theta-e is a bit lower over
western OK where dewpoints have mixed to 58-62 F, a surge of
unstable air will spread over this area this evening as a 30+ kt
low-level jet develops. This will also increase low-level ascent
ahead of the MCS. Large hail is likely initially, with an increasing
wind threat as storm mode become linear. Given strong instability
and cool temperatures aloft, the stronger cores within the MCS may
still produce hail. 

For more information see mesoscale discussions 1125 and 1126.

..Jewell.. 06/19/2019

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html

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