Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and wind will continue this evening and tonight from mainly from west Texas into Oklahoma. Other strong storms over the Mid Atlantic and across Montana should continue to weaken this evening. ...West TX, OK, KS... An east-west oriented outflow boundary is currently moving south along the KS/OK border as an MCS continues over southeast KS and far northeast OK. Damaging winds and large hail remain possible with this system. South of the outflow, heating for most of the day has led to strong instability, with highest theta-e over northwest TX where dewpoints have come up into the upper 60s F. GPS PWAT values have steadily risen during the day, nearing 1.40" at CDS. Clusters of severe storms over the south Plains and Panhandles will eventually merge cold pools with an MCS expected over northwest TX into central OK. While boundary-layer theta-e is a bit lower over western OK where dewpoints have mixed to 58-62 F, a surge of unstable air will spread over this area this evening as a 30+ kt low-level jet develops. This will also increase low-level ascent ahead of the MCS. Large hail is likely initially, with an increasing wind threat as storm mode become linear. Given strong instability and cool temperatures aloft, the stronger cores within the MCS may still produce hail. For more information see mesoscale discussions 1125 and 1126. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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