Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will continue over parts of north Texas into parts of the Arklatex this evening. A few severe storms will also occur in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with a severe storm or two also possible in the central High Plains. ...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough in the High Plains with west-southwesterly mid-level flow over the southern Plains and Arklatex. At the surface, a cold front is located from west-central Texas to near the Red River and eastward into southern Arkansas. A linear MCS is currently ongoing just to the south of the front. A very moist airmass is located to the south of the MCS with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability with MLCAPE values estimated to be from 3000 to 4500 J/kg by the RAP and confirmed by the 00Z sounding at Forth Worth. That sounding also shows 0-6 km near 35 kt with a steep mid-level lapse rate. Deep-layer shear is likely stronger to the west across much of north Texas where supercells with very large hail will be possible early this evening. As the linear MCS continues to advance south-southeastward across north and northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas, wind damage will be likely with the stronger portions of the line...see MCD 436. The line should gradually weaken later this evening as it moves into parts of east Texas and northern Louisiana. ...Northern Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle/Kansas... A few isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing ahead of an upper-level trough from the northern Texas Panhandle into central Kansas. These storms are located in a weakly unstable airmass with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. In spite of this, the RAP is showing moderate deep-layer shear from the southern High Plains northeastward into the central Plains along the northern edge of a mid-level jet max. This will continue to support isolated severe storm development early this evening. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A line of thunderstorms is currently ongoing along an outflow boundary from western Kentucky southwestward into northern Mississippi. A moist and unstable airmass is located ahead of the line where low-level level lapse rates are steep. This will be sufficient for isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger portions of the line early this evening. A few severe storms with isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible ahead of the line across eastern Kentucky and northward into western Indiana early this evening. The line should eventually weaken as it moves eastward into the southern Appalachians and into the central Gulf Coast states later this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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