SPC Jun 26, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS WELL
AS THE CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will continue through at least mid evening
from a portion of the central Plains through the middle Mississippi
Valley. Other strong to severe storms will persist into mid evening
over a portion of the central through northern High Plains as well
as a portion of west Texas. Damaging wind and hail will be the main
threats in all areas.

...North central through northeast Kansas...

Cluster of storms that developed along a cold front over southern NE
is propagating southward into north central KS. A leading supercell
near Concordia may continue to pose a risk for very large hail next
hour or so. Other storms are developing farther west north of the
trailing outflow boundary. The 00Z RAOB  from TOP indicates a 65 F
surface dewpoint, but with a decreasing moisture profile through the
remainder of the boundary layer. While a modest increase in
low-level moisture may occur this evening, believe that the boundary
layer should decouple rapidly with onset of nocturnal cooling,
resulting in a substantial increase in surface-based convective
inhibition. The severe threat may persist another couple hours over
north central through northeast KS, followed by a rapid weakening
trend by 03Z.

...Northern Missouri through central Illinois...

Cluster of storms that developed along the cold front have evolved
into a small cluster over northeast MO into western IL posing a risk
for damaging wind and hail . The 00Z ILX RAOB and surface
observations show low 60s F dewpoints across central IL, but with
marginal MLCAPE (less than 1000 J/kg). Decoupling of the boundary
layer resulting in a substantial increase in convective inhibition
should lead to a gradual weakening trend by 03Z.

...Central through northern High Plains...

Storms spreading eastward into the central through northern High
Plains will continue to pose a risk for downburst winds and hail
through at least 03Z, followed by a gradual diminishing trend.

..Dial.. 06/26/2019

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html