Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will move offshore the Texas Gulf coast this evening. Additional severe thunderstorms across portions of northern Utah, eastern Idaho, far western Wyoming and southwest to central Montana will continue for a few more hours this evening. These storms will mainly pose a threat for strong gusts, but some hail is also possible. More isolated strong storms are possible from the Arklatex region into portions of northeast Mississippi, Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through the overnight hours. ...Arklatex to northern Gulf Coast States... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds will be possible through the evening hours across the Arklatex ahead of a surface low over OK. The downstream airmass remains very moist and unstable. Modified 23z RAP soundings and 00z SHV RAOB suggest some potential for gusty winds in a modest CAPE, high PW, weak low-level shear environment. Latest HRRR guidance seems to support this notion so will maintain MRGL probs for this area. Further east, instability will increase northeastward across AL/GA overnight as midlevel lapse rates steepen modestly in weak height falls/cooling aloft as the midlevel trough over the Plains shifts slowly eastward. High-res guidance and RAP forecast soundings suggest wind profiles favorable for low level rotation with effective shear increasing to 30-35 kt and MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg overspreading AL/western GA overnight. As such, an isolated strong wind gust or brief tornado can not be ruled out and MRGL probs have been expanded across AL/GA. ...Texas Gulf Coast... A line of severe storms producing damaging winds across the middle to upper TX Gulf coast will move offshore over the next 1-2 hours. In the short-term, gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible, in addition to large hail. A few isolated cells may develop across parts of central/southern TX overnight and could produce some marginal hail, but overall, the threat across this portion of TX will diminish this evening as squall line moves offshore. ...UT/ID/WY/MT... Only minor adjustment have been made to this area and severe thunderstorms will continue over the next few hours. High-based thunderstorms mainly capable of strong wind gusts to 65 mph are expected. ..Leitman.. 06/07/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
No comments:
Post a Comment