Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across parts of the central Plains this evening and tonight. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms continue moving south-southeastward this evening along a cold front across NE, and a few supercells producing large hail are ongoing in a post-frontal upslope flow regime across eastern CO. Current expectations are for storms to grow upscale into a MCS across southern NE and western KS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens this evening. An isolated strong to damaging wind threat may continue through the overnight hours into parts of central KS with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt supporting continued updraft organization. An isolated large hail and tornado threat will probably remain maximized with the supercells moving east-southeastward across eastern CO this evening as both low and deep-layer shear remain maximized across this area. a couple very large hail reports (2+ inches in diameter) cannot be ruled out as long as storms can remain at least semi-discrete. ...Northern Plains... Storms that formed earlier today across the Dakotas have mostly been undercut by an eastward-moving cold front. A narrow corridor of weak instability remains across eastern ND/SD into northwestern MN, and mid-level southwesterly winds will continue to strengthen across this region through the evening and overnight as an upper trough moves slowly eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains. Regardless, the elevated nature of ongoing convection suggests just a marginal hail and perhaps gusty wind threat continues this evening. ...Southern High Plains... Convective coverage remains quite sparse this evening across the southern High Plains, as storms have generally struggled to initiate along the surface trough/dryline. However, one attempt at initiation has been successful in west TX, probably in relation to weak ascent associated with a minor vorticity maximum noted in water vapor satellite imagery over eastern NM this evening. It remains uncertain whether any additional storms will be able to develop across this region as convective inhibition gradually increases. Low-end hail/wind probabilities have been confined to where towering cumulus along the dryline indicate at least some chance for storm development in the next hour or so. ...Southeast... An upper low centered over western KY/TN this evening should continue to occlude overnight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have occurred today over much of the Southeast, and instability should weaken tonight with the loss of daytime heating. A very isolated strong wind gust cannot be completely ruled out over the next hour or two across parts of SC with a loosely organized line of storms. 5% wind probabilities have been confined to this area to address the short-term threat. ..Gleason.. 06/09/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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