Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest. ...01Z Update... ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be occurring. Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County. Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet increases. ...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK... Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is available in MCD 1777. ..Mosier.. 08/18/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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