Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the High Plains. A few storms with strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley. ...High Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows a west to northwest mid-level flow pattern over the central U.S. with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. Thunderstorms have developed just ahead of the trough along a corridor of moderate instability from the western Texas Panhandle into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. MLCAPE values across this area estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 kt, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs and steep low to mid-level lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe threat this evening. The stronger storms could produce hail and isolated wind gusts approaching severe limits. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the Ozarks. Ahead of the trough, a cold front is located from southern Missouri into southern Illinois. Thunderstorms have developed along the front on the northwestern edge of a moist airmass with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This is contributing to a corridor of moderate instability across southern Illinois into southern Indiana. As the MCV associated with the convective complex moves eastward, a marginal severe threat will likely continue along this corridor of instability. A few strong wind gusts are expected to be the primary hazard. ..Broyles.. 08/31/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
No comments:
Post a Comment