Mesoscale Discussion 1892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Areas affected...south central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300030Z - 300130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue through south central Missouri during the next couple hours, posing a risk for isolated strong wind gusts before weakening further toward mid evening. Due to anticipated limited spacial/temporal extent of the threat, a WW will probably not be needed south of WW 627. DISCUSSION...Storms continue developing along an outflow boundary moving south through central MO at around 25 kt. This activity will soon cross into the Springfield county warning area where based on the 00Z RAOB, the atmosphere remains moderately unstable with 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms may continue to pose a threat for isolated strong wind gusts through 02Z. However, with the low-level jet evolving well west of this region, the primary forcing mechanism will be convergence along the southward-advancing gust front. This relatively shallow forcing may not be sufficient to sustain deep convection into the late evening given increasing convective inhibition associated with a stabilizing surface layer. ..Dial/Goss.. 08/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 38559297 38229238 37949298 38199340 38559297Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1892.html
No comments:
Post a Comment