Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, will continue across portions of the southern High Plains into southwestern Missouri. A few strong storms will also linger across southern Pennsylvania into northern Maryland. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough ejecting northeast across the lower MO Valley region. Organized convection continues ahead of this feature but the greatest risk for robust updrafts is along the southern flank of this system across southeastern KS into southwestern MO over the next few hours. Some hail/wind threat will persist with this activity. Farther west, steeper lapse rate-regime across the southern High Plains has contributed to gusty winds/hail with strongest storms from southeast NM into western OK. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited substantial SBCAPE (~4000 J/kg) with sfc-6km bulk shear approaching 40kt. However, short-wave ridging and loss of daytime heating should render this activity more isolated and less organized than downstream convection. Convection that developed along southern fringe of Canadian short-wave trough has propagated southeast across the OH Valley and is approaching the PA/MD border. This activity should gradually weaken with loss of daytime heating in the absence of large-scale support. ..Darrow.. 09/29/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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