Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... The potential for a couple of tornadoes may increase late tonight near northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina coastal areas. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... At least some evaporative cooling, within steady convective precipitation to the north and west of the center of Dorian, is maintaining a relatively cool and stable (as suggested by latest observational data and objective analysis) boundary layer across much of South Carolina and Georgia coastal areas and offshore waters. Based on the expected slow north-northeastward motion of Dorian, there might not be much change overnight. However, toward 12Z, near surface flow may gradually take on a more substantive easterly component (as opposed to northeasterly) near northeastern South Carolina/southern North Carolina coastal areas, accompanied by an influx of tropical boundary layer air (including mid/upper 70s surface dew points ) which could become more conducive to tornado potential in the presence of enlarging low-level hodographs (becoming characterized by strong to extreme shear). ...Northern Plains... A low amplitude short wave trough over southern Saskatchewan is forecast to turn eastward and southeastward across into the eastern North Dakota/Minnesota international border area by daybreak. Models suggest that this may be accompanied by a zone of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota by 06-08Z, with CAPE for moistening parcels rooted within this layer increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg. Coupled with moderately strong, unidirectional shear within the convective layer, the environment could become conducive storms posing at least some risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 09/05/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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