SPC MD 2232

MD 2232 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 2232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 272338Z - 280145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be likely across parts of
eastern New Mexico and west Texas over the next couple hours.
Weather watch issuance is not expected do to the isolated nature of
the threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows an inverted surface
trough from far west Texas into eastern New Mexico with backed
southeasterly flow to the east of the trough. In response to the
backed flow, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is present
from west of the Lubbock area extending north-northwestward into the
Clovis NM vicinity. Surface dewpoints are in the lower 50s F with
the RAP showing MLCAPE up to around 500 J/kg. In addition, the
Clovis WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear of 60 kt with 0-1 km shear
near 25 kt. This environment should be favorable for a supercell or
two as storms move northeastward across the instability corridor
over the next couple of hours. Hail will be likely with any
supercell that can develop but a marginal tornado threat can not be
ruled out due to the strong low-level shear.

..Broyles/Grams.. 12/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35160412 34690436 34420441 33700429 33020374 32370339
            32070305 32020264 32110226 32410185 32890146 33440150
            34330200 35240279 35390344 35160412 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2232.html