SPC MD 447

MD 0447 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL LA...FAR NORTHEAST SOUTHERN LA...SOUTHWEST MS

Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

Areas affected...Far East-Central LA...Far Northeast Southern
LA...Southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222347Z - 230115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts possible but
marginal nature of the severe threat is expected to preclude watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm moving out of Concordia Parish LA into
Adams and Wilkinson Counties in MS has shown a
strengthening/maturing trend over the past 30 minutes, with some
supercellular radar signatures recently noted. This storm is moving
just north of the warm front in an area characterized by limited
buoyancy and low-level stability. Expectation is for the warm front
to remain relatively stationary until later this evening when a
strengthening low-level jet and the approaching shortwave trough act
to influence more northward motion. As a result, the ongoing
supercell (and those in its wake over northern LA) will pose an
isolated threat for large hail, and perhaps damaging wind gusts, but
the tornado threat currently appears low. Given the marginal nature
of the threat, a watch is not currently anticipated with this round
of storms.

..Mosier/Grams.. 04/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32179125 31989021 31378908 30388941 31009158 31999184
            32179125 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0447.html