Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will linger across parts of the High Plains and from eastern Tennessee to the southern Delmarva. ...01z Update... Long-lived MCS that developed over KS has since progressed downstream across the TN Valley where it is quickly decreasing in intensity. While a remnant MCV remains evident along the KY/TN border southwest of LOZ, this feature is encountering increasingly stable air mass as it approaches the central Appalachians. 00z sounding from RNK exhibits steep low-level lapse rates but only .66 PW with surface dew points in the mid 40s. Convection should continue along a corridor immediately ahead of the MCV into the southern Delmarva tonight; however, limited buoyancy warrants only a MRGL Risk the rest of the period. Across the High Plains, very hot surface temperatures across west-central TX have contributed to scattered high-based thunderstorms south of a stalled frontal zone. This activity will linger for several hours along with some risk for hail/wind. Short-wave ridging across the northern/central High Plains is flattening this evening ahead of a short-wave trough that should migrate into western WY by sunrise. Scattered strong/locally severe thunderstorms should linger across this region tonight as LLJ is expected to increase, partly in response to approaching short wave. 00z soundings from this region are not particularly unstable, but steep lapse rates do favor some threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 05/04/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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