SPC MD 524

MD 0524 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 040000Z - 040130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging wind gusts and brief instances of
large hail may accompany the strongest storm cores over the next
couple of hours. Boundary layer stabilization after sunset should
result in weakening convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Pulse convection has recently been noted by mosaic
composite radar and visible satellite ahead of a dryline over parts
of central Texas. These storms are developing in a very hot, dry,
deeply mixed boundary layer, with 9+ C/km lapse rates noted within a
sfc-500 mb layer (per latest RAP forecast soundings). The steeper
mid-level lapse rates may promote large hail growth, though the size
and density of hail coverage at any particular location may be
modulated by stones falling through a deeply heated and dry column.
However, any hail/graupel melting or rain water evaporation in such
a column will promote ample latent cooling and associated downward
momentum transport to perhaps support strong wind gusts. 

Storm organization and longevity should be limited some by modest
flow and associated weak vertical shear profiles aloft, with
convection likely diminishing in coverage and intensity with a rapid
cooling boundary layer after sunset. As such, any severe threat that
materializes should be sparse and brief enough to preclude a WW
issuance.

..Squitieri.. 05/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31380183 32520038 33229914 33209865 32719827 32059853
            31579890 31219945 31060017 31160092 31380183 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0524.html