Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHWESTERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL WI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe storms will continue this evening into tonight, mainly across portions of southern Kansas, the far eastern Texas Panhandle, and western/central Oklahoma. Numerous damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail should remain the primary threats. ...01Z Update... Primary severe threat should remain focused across southern KS into parts of western/central OK this evening with an ongoing MCS. Multiple measured severe wind gusts producing damaging have been reported with this convection, and current expectations are for this bow to move quickly south-southeastward along an instability gradient across western/central OK this evening and tonight. A south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to strengthen this evening across the southern High Plains, which should support scattered to numerous severe wind gusts for at least the next few hours, mainly across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwestern OK. Isolated large hail may also occur, particularly with any embedded supercell on the southwestern flank of the line. There is some potential for at least isolated damaging winds to continue late tonight into early Monday morning across southern OK and parts of north TX. Have therefore expanded 15% severe wind probabilities and corresponding Slight Risk southward across this area. Farther north, convection has struggled to intensify along a weak front in central/eastern NE. This may be related to earlier convection limiting the degree of diurnal heating and related instability. An isolated hail/wind risk may continue in the short term across this region (see Mesoscale Discussion 961), but continued nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer should result in a gradually diminishing severe threat across NE. Mainly an isolated strong to severe wind threat may continue for another couple hours across north-central/northeastern IA into far western WI with a small cluster. These storms should weaken with eastward extent across WI as instability gradually lessens. Elsewhere, occasional strong/gusty winds capable of producing mainly tree damage may occur for another hour or two with ongoing convection across parts of the lower MS Valley. ..Gleason.. 06/22/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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